Immigration to Play Lead Role In Future U.S. Growth – U.S. Population Projections: 2005-2050

On Monday (2/11/08), The Pew Research Center , the self-described “nonpartisan “fact tank” that provides information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world,” published the report, “Immigration to Play Lead Role In Future U.S. Growth – U.S. Population Projections: 2005-2050.” The executive summary states:

“If current trends continue, the population of the United States will rise to 438 million in 2050, from 296 million in 2005, and 82% of the increase will be due to immigrants arriving from 2005 to 2050 and their U.S.-born descendants, according to new projections developed by the Pew Research Center. Of the 117 million people added to the population during this period due to the effect of new immigration, 67 million will be the immigrants themselves and 50 million will be their U.S.-born children or grandchildren….Births in the United States will play a growing role in Hispanic and Asian population growth; as a result, a smaller proportion of both groups will be foreign-born in 2050 than is the case now…The non-Hispanic white population will increase more slowly than other racial and ethnic groups; whites will become a minority (47%) by 2050.“

In 2050, Asians will account for 9% of the U.S. population, from 5% in 2005. The San Jose Mercury News reports on these findings in “California’s diversity a cue for U.S.:

“California is the leading edge,” said Hans Johnson, a demographer for the Public Policy Institute of California. “At the same time, we aren’t talking about changes uniformly through the nation.” In California, immigrants are already 27 percent of the population; in Santa Clara County, they’re 36 percent. California is expected to reach a population of about 60 million by 2050 – 16 million more than in 2000, according to recent state Department of Finance projections. That forecast was a basis of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s controversial bid to build more dams and other infrastructure.”

Asians already constitute 12% of California’s population – about 20% in the San Francisco Bay Area, imagine what it’ll be like in 2050? I really wonder what non-Hispanic whites think of this trend? In 2050, “The White Man’s Burden” could take on a totally new meaning.

You can download the complete Pew Research report here (in .pdf)